Romney devra survivre au aux mois de janvier et février. Si certains états lui sont encore favorables selon les sondages (New Hampshire, Nevada, Maine et Michigan), d'autres états réagissent très mal à son message ou ont opté récemment pour Gingrich (Iowa, Floride, Minnesota, Missouri, Colorado et CAroline du sud). S'il s'en tire, l'opposition de Gingrich le forcera à ouvrir la machine, à devenir plus fort.
"Mitt Romney has spent a lifetime around politics. His father George Romney was a governor of Michigan and a one-time candidate for president, and his mother Lenore Romney also once ran for the Senate. And starting in 1994, and then much more intensely in the past decade, he has run for Senate and governor of Massachusetts, and then for president. But despite all his hard work and preparation, he might be facing his most formidable opponent yet: The primary calendar.
Taking a step back from the various state polls, and looking at the flow of the calendar itself, something starts to become clear: If a person had sat down to write a primary calendar, designed around the goal of making things hard for Romney, they could not do much better than the current one.
It is, of course, too early to know what will happen. But on the other hand, if the current trends do end up continuing — and if his new main rival, Newt Gingrich, does not collapse — Romney may be on the verge, despite his long march of running for president in 2008 to now, of having a very rough time in January.
The earliest contests in January are mostly in territory that is simply not a natural fit for Romney. Things turn around in February, with primaries and caucuses that could be better for him — but by then, if current polling trends holds out, the damage could be irreparable."
http://2012.talkingpointsmemo.com/2011/12/mapping-out-the-primary-calendar-why-mitt-romney-is-in-trouble.php?ref=fpa
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