Caricature d'Osama Hajjaj, Jordan
vendredi 30 novembre 2018
Élections de mi-mandats 2018: les plus inusitées de l'histoire moderne
"The strength of this year's blue wave depends upon how you measure it:
If you measure it by Democratic seats gained in the House, or since Watergate, or by the margin of victory in the popular vote, it was the strongest Democratic wave since the 1974 midterm election.
If you measure it by total seats gained by any party, the Republicans did better under Bill Clinton in 1994 and Barack Obama in 2010.%% And if you measure it by end results, 2006 was better for the Democrats — the year they won both the House and Senate under George W. Bush.
The bottom line: The split decision was no surprise, since the Senate map was historically bad for Democrats. That's why Republicans were able to survive and even improve their numbers a bit in the Senate. But it doesn't mean the wave wasn't there."
https://www.axios.com/2018-midterms-blue-wave-split-decision-2b4b0a99-05d7-4da4-9976-5da63fe9c92b.html
Le mensonge de Michael Cohen n'est pas banal (position éditoriale du New York Times)
"If investigating the Trump Organization and his business dealings was a “red line” for Mr. Mueller not to cross — as Mr. Trump told The Times last year — the special counsel blew right past it with Thursday’s charges. And with good reason: The conduct Mr. Cohen has attested to in his plea agreement and in open court falls directly within the special counsel’s mandate to pursue “any links” or “coordination between the Russian government and individuals associated with the campaign of President Donald Trump.”"
https://www.nytimes.com/2018/11/29/opinion/cohen-trump-lies-russia-mueller.html?action=click&module=Opinion&pgtype=Homepage
Accord États-Unis–Mexique–Canada (AEUMC) signé: le congrès américain pourrait intervenir
"The agreement also offers a measure of vindication for Trump’s uncompromising “America First” stance at a gathering associated with the elite globalism that he denigrates.
The hard part awaits Trump back in Washington.
In the Senate, Sen. Patrick J. Toomey (R-Pa.), who backs expanded trade, says he will oppose the deal unless changes are made to investor protection provisions. Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-Mass.), a likely Democratic presidential candidate, said Thursday that she would oppose the trade pact as inadequate for American workers, foreshadowing a possible 2020 campaign plank.
Major U.S. industries and agricultural interests are also unhappy that the president has not yet removed tariffs on steel and aluminum imports from Mexico and Canada, as administration officials promised during the final stages of the three-way negotiations."
https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/economy/trump-scores-big-political-win-with-signing-ceremony-at-g-20-for-new-north-american-trade-pact/2018/11/29/3fe07f48-f416-11e8-80d0-f7e1948d55f4_story.html?utm_term=.d50bdace0514
jeudi 29 novembre 2018
Chronique dans "Trudeau le midi": semaine chargée!
https://www.qub.radio/#/balado?id=0666b10f-5b4f-4863-8833-a96f00044eef
mercredi 28 novembre 2018
Creed: le film qui redéfinit la franchise Rocky
"Every single movie, that is, until Creed. The director Ryan Coogler’s 2015 film, which features Apollo’s son Adonis Creed (Michael B. Jordan) as its protagonist, completely refashioned the iconic American sports-film series, one that has been unendingly imitated in style and content. Creed was an act of subversion by Coogler and his co-writer Aaron Covington, and an oddly moving act of humility by Sylvester Stallone, who allowed his career-defining character, an avatar of white masculinity, to be transformed into a vehicle of redemption for Creed’s black protagonist—a role traditionally played by black actors."
https://www.theatlantic.com/entertainment/archive/2018/11/how-creed-forever-changed-rocky-series/576757/
mardi 27 novembre 2018
États-Unis-Mexique: option gagnante pour tout le monde à la frontière?
"Needless to say, such a proposal would be sure to meet with ferocious resistance from U.S. medical providers who fear the prospect of foreign competition, and their political allies would surely denounce it as part of a larger plot to export aging Americans en masse. But U.S. retirees are growing more diverse, and a large and growing number of them have origins in Mexico. Many of them would welcome the opportunity to reconnect with their ancestral homeland, provided they wouldn’t have to surrender the promise of high-quality medical care in their twilight years in the process.
The benefits for Mexico would be immeasurable. Though export-oriented manufacturing has helped the country climb to upper-middle-income status, the truth is that low-skill, labor-intensive manufacturing won’t be enough to propel Mexico into the ranks of the world’s most affluent market democracies, not least because automation and offshoring to lower-cost locales will likely limit wage and employment gains. Further developing labor-intensive services, however, holds great promise for closing the still-yawning gap separating living standards north and south of the U.S.-Mexico border, and also for incorporating the recent Central American influx."
https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2018/11/migration-proposal-help-both-us-and-mexico/576781/
Chronique dans "J'appelle mon avocat" sur les ondes de Qub radio
https://www.qub.radio/#/balado?id=f6675e93-5cf0-479c-b0cc-a981011e093f
Paul Manafort ment et pourrait connaître sa sentence bientôt
"As part of his plea agreement, Manafort promised to tell the government about “his participation in and knowledge of all criminal activities.” Prosecutors did not elaborate on areas where they contend Manafort lied or what evidence led them to that conclusion. A Mueller spokesman declined to comment.
“After signing the plea agreement, Manafort committed federal crimes by lying to the Federal Bureau of Investigation and the Special Counsel’s Office on a variety of subject matters, which constitute breaches of the agreement,” prosecutors wrote. “The government will file a detailed sentencing submission to the Probation Department and the Court in advance of sentencing that sets forth the nature of the defendant’s crimes and lies.”
https://www.washingtonpost.com/local/public-safety/mueller-says-manafort-lied-after-pleading-guilty-should-be-sentenced-immediately/2018/11/26/61c76d5a-f18d-11e8-aeea-b85fd44449f5_story.html?utm_term=.af8dbe977c14
Chronique dans "Dutrizac de 6 à 9": un congé plus ou moins festif pour Trump
La voiture américaine est-elle devenue obsolète?
"The big picture: Welcome to the modern car industry, which is full of bad news. All the top-selling sedans in America — the Toyota Camry, Honda Civic, Honda Accord, Toyota Corolla, Nissan Altima, and Nissan Sentra — are Japanese.
Why it matters: American carmakers can't compete, and are giving up that segment of the market. Instead they're concentrating on trucks, SUVs, and crossovers, which have higher profit margins and growing demand. What's next? Almost certainly, even more job losses.
Car factories are at their most efficient when they run at full capacity. Right now America is capable of producing many more vehicles than there's demand for — roughly 3.2 million vehicles per year, according to Kristin Dziczek, vice president of industry, labor and economics at the Center for Automotive Research. (GM accounts for about 1 million of that.) The logic of efficiency means that yet more factories are likely to close."
https://www.axios.com/general-motors-american-automakers-closures-detroit-7315b7ba-da81-4786-af35-fef3aacb3675.html
Siège au sénat: on vote au Mississippi
"The Democratic candidate, Mike Espy, faces steep odds as he seeks to become the first black senator from deeply conservative Mississippi since just after the Civil War. The state’s long struggle with racism has emerged as an unavoidable theme, with two nooses found outside the state Capitol on Monday morning.
But African Americans make up a larger share of the electorate here than they do in any other state, and in recent days, Espy and groups backing him have flooded the state with volunteers, radio ads and social media posts — seeking out potential voters in churches and on historically black college campuses."
https://www.nytimes.com/2018/11/27/us/politics/cindy-hyde-smith-mike-espy-mississippi.html
Bébé génétiquement modifié: la communauté scientifique est inquiète
"The intrigue: There’s a lot we still don’t know about He’s work, and that’s also contributing to an attitude of skepticism.
How many embryos did he edit and implant before these live births?
How will he know it worked? As the children age, they’ll likely have their blood drawn and those samples will be exposed to HIV in a lab, but researchers aren’t going to tell them to go out and have unprotected sex or use intravenous drugs — another reason HIV seems like an odd starting place for human gene editing.
How did this even happen? The university where He worked said he was on leave, and Chinese officials have said he’s under investigation. But gene editing is a pretty hard thing to freelance"
https://www.axios.com/genetic-editing-baby-china-ethics-controversy-b33f8414-8b83-445c-bad5-d8407f8841f4.html
samedi 24 novembre 2018
vendredi 23 novembre 2018
Des agences gouvernementales américains sonnent l'alarme sur les retombées des changements climatiques
"The report, which was mandated by Congress and made public by the White House, is notable not only for the precision of its calculations and bluntness of its conclusions, but also because its findings are directly at odds with President Trump’s agenda of environmental deregulation, which he asserts will spur economic growth.
Mr. Trump has taken aggressive steps to allow more planet-warming pollution from vehicle tailpipes and power plant smokestacks, and has vowed to pull the United States out of the Paris Agreement, under which nearly every country in the world pledged to cut carbon emissions. Just this week, he mocked the science of climate change because of a cold snap in the Northeast, tweeting, “Whatever happened to Global Warming?”
https://www.nytimes.com/2018/11/23/climate/us-climate-report.html
Chronique dans "Trudeau le midi" sur les ondes de Qub radio: les chances de Donald Trump en 2020
https://www.qub.radio/#/balado?id=0666b10f-5b4f-4863-8833-a96f00044eef
Jim Corsi en négociation de peine avec Mueller?
"Since then, Corsi has resumed talks with Mueller’s team about a possible deal that could result in him agreeing to plead guilty in exchange for leniency, according to the person familiar with the situation.
It is not clear what information Corsi could leverage to get a deal with prosecutors. However, he told the Daily Caller last week that prosecutors are focused on whether he had developed a source with inside information about WikiLeaks founder Julian Assange’s plans.
Corsi said he did not have a direct source to the group. Instead, he said he developed a theory that Assange had access to hacked emails belonging to Hillary Clinton campaign chairman John Podesta and that WikiLeaks would release them in October 2016.
He told the Daily Caller that he shared his prediction with many people, including Stone.
If Mueller could prove that Corsi learned about Podesta’s emails from Assange or another person in contact with him, he could try to link WikiLeaks’ releases to Stone or others in Trump’s world."
https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/stone-associate-jerome-corsi-is-in-plea-negotiations-with-special-counsel-according-to-a-person-with-knowledge-of-the-talks/2018/11/23/29765b3a-eaa5-11e8-a939-9469f1166f9d_story.html?utm_term=.fd227e222f84
Les Démocrates et le "problème blanc"
"And so it is with Trump’s carefully timed injections of racism: the Muslim ban; his shocking comments after the violence in Charlottesville, Virginia; his unsolicited advice to the NFL on how to handle player protests; family separations and the weaponization of Immigration and Customs Enforcement. These gestures may seem like pandering to racists. But in truth they are aimed equally at the left, in an effort to keep liberals’ attention focused on race rather than class. If Democrats were to focus more attention on economic issues, they just might be able to win back the non-elite white voters they’ve been bleeding for half a century. People like Bannon seem to realize this. If Democrats want to regain the presidency in 2020, they need to realize it too."
https://www.theatlantic.com/magazine/archive/2018/12/the-democrats-white-people-problem/573901/
Barbe Noire: le rebelle à l'esprit démocratique
"There was also a democratic spirit aboard the pirates’ ships six decades before Lexington and Yorktown, more than seven ahead of the storming of the Bastille. Upon seizing a vessel, the pirates turned its government upside down. Instead of using whips and beatings to enforce a rigid, top-down hierarchy, they elected and deposed their captains by popular vote. They shared their treasure almost equally and on most ships didn’t allow the captain his own cabin. The contracts some crews drew up and signed included disability benefits: payments for lost eyes and limbs taken from the shared plunder before it was divvied up.
All this — and far better food, drink and hours — made piracy extremely attractive to merchant and naval sailors alike, who in this time period faced malnourishment, wage cheating, and brutal and sometimes sadistic officers. Typically when the pirates captured a ship, a portion of its crew would enthusiastically join their ranks, allowing the outbreak to expand from a handful of pirates in sloops to several thousand in multi-ship squadrons in just three years. Even the Royal Navy was vulnerable; when the ship H.M.S. Phoenix confronted the pirates at their Nassau lair 300 years ago this spring, a number of the frigate’s sailors sneaked off in the night to serve under the black flag.
Runaway slaves also joined the pirates as word spread that they allowed people of African descent to participate as equal members of their crews and sometimes as captains. At the height of the outbreak, it was not unusual for escaped or liberated slaves to account for a quarter or more of the pirates’ crews. In the months after Blackbeard captured his flagship, Queen Anne’s Revenge, witnesses would report as many as 70 serving aboard, and several remained in his closest circle to the day he died. Although pirates also treated many of the slaves they found on captured slave ships as cargo to be sold, not colleagues to recruit, their integrated ships still represented a threat to the slave colonies surrounding the Bahamas. Gov. Benjamin Bennett of Bermuda warned that slaves had “grown so impudent and insulting of late that we have reason to suspect their rising” against us and “fear their joining with the pirates.”"
https://www.nytimes.com/2018/11/22/opinion/blackbeard-pirate-golden-age-.html?action=click&module=Opinion&pgtype=Homepage
Abolir le collège électorale: la tentative de Birch Bayh
"The measure was bipartisan. Three Republican senators were key supporters, and President Richard Nixon was open to the idea. Reform was broadly popular across party lines prior to 2016, when Trump’s election sent Republican support for a direct popular election from 54 percent, in 2012, to 19 percent, according to a Gallup survey. (Democratic support surged from 69 to 81 percent in the same poll.) But in 1969, when the proposal was introduced, opposition was just as bipartisan, with the brunt of it coming from a set of Southern senators including Sam Ervin and Strom Thurmond. Most were ardent segregationists.
The measure’s supporters pushed hard. Out of at least 700 attempts in Congress to alter the presidential election system, the 1969 proposal came closest to making an actual constitutional change. Bayh argued against the potential for candidates like George Wallace—the Alabama governor who garnered 46 electoral votes as a third party candidate in 1968—to swing the election. Bayh’s proposal called for a minimum of 40 percent of the vote to achieve victory. If no candidate reached that threshold, a runoff election would be held between the two highest vote-getters."
https://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2018/11/electoral-college-gives-trump-and-gop-boost/576448/
Arabie saoudite veut sa propre entente sur le nucléaire: les États-Unis doivent-ils faire confiance?
"But there is a hitch: Saudi Arabia insists on producing its own nuclear fuel, even though it could buy it more cheaply abroad, according to American and Saudi officials familiar with the negotiations. That raised concerns in Washington that the Saudis could divert their fuel into a covert weapons project — exactly what the United States and its allies feared Iran was doing before it reached the 2015 nuclear accord, which President Trump has since abandoned.
Prince Mohammed set off alarms when he declared earlier this year, in the midst of the negotiation, that if Iran, Saudi Arabia’s fiercest rival, “developed a nuclear bomb, we will follow suit as soon as possible.” His negotiators stirred more worries by telling the Trump administration that Saudi Arabia would refuse to sign an agreement that would allow United Nations inspectors to look anywhere in the country for signs that the Saudis might be working on a bomb, American officials said."
https://www.nytimes.com/2018/11/22/world/middleeast/saudi-arabia-nuclear.html
Donald Trump contredit la CIA dans l'affaire Khashoggi
"The CIA did come to a conclusion, saying they believe with "high confidence" that MBS was behind the killing. This isn't the first time Trump has contradicted reports from the intelligence community. Trump also told pool reporters that "maybe the world" should be held accountable for Khashoggi's murder, because it's a "very vicious place.""
https://www.axios.com/trump-cia-report-saudi-jamal-khashoggi-murder-1d8f0d72-ee3c-44db-9495-2a132cc1d312.html
jeudi 22 novembre 2018
Dessine-moi l'histoire: évolution de la philosophie historique
"The fracturing of global alliances and the rise of hard-right movements like those in Hungary, Brazil and the United States have caused many of us to question the inevitability of what we generally call progress. Ecological disasters like the California wildfires, plausibly connected to climate change and suburban development, raise the specter of a human history moving inexorably toward self-destruction.
The philosophy of history, which flourished in the 19th and early 20th centuries and has enjoyed periodic revivals in the hands of thinkers like Arthur Danto and Francis Fukuyama, set itself the remarkably ambitious project of describing the forces that shape human events: history’s structure, its direction, its aim, its point and even its end. There are good reasons to be skeptical of such a project, which we might associate above all with the names Marx and Hegel, and it is possible that history has no coherent shape or direction, or many. It may be, too, that the shape of history depends on our decisions and not on impersonal forces. But the philosophy of history is also a seductive project because, among other things, it seems to promise an understanding — even an approximate one — of what might happen next."
https://www.nytimes.com/2018/11/19/opinion/how-would-you-draw-history.html
mercredi 21 novembre 2018
Benjamin Franklin et les "fake news": le choix de la dinde comme oiseau emblématique pour les États-Unis
"Well, according to the Harvard project and Franklin biographers, that dates back to a letter Franklin sent his daughter in which he wrote: “For my own part I wish the Bald Eagle had not been chosen as the Representative of our Country. He is a Bird of bad moral Character. He does not get his Living honestly.” As for the turkey, Franklin wrote that it “was a much more respectable Bird.”
Those few sentences are the quotes that have been passed down through history. But the letter itself — and in its entirety — had nothing to do with the national seal. Franklin, a known jokester, was being Seinfeld-like in an attempt to denigrate the seal of a hereditary club called the Society of the Cincinnati.
“The joke,” according to the Harvard project, “is based in the idea that the Society’s symbol appeared to some to look more like a turkey than an eagle.”
Guess you had to be there.
Anyway, even with the turkey misunderstanding now cleared up, the history of Franklin and turkeys cannot be considered complete until another chapter is examined: His wanton execution of them."
https://www.washingtonpost.com/history/2018/11/21/ben-franklin-didnt-champion-turkeys-fact-they-never-survived-encounters-with-him/?utm_term=.e561d4e839a4
Donald Trump et Mohammed Ben Salmane: une dure vérité
Un peu de Trump dans ce topo, mais pas que Trump...
And here is the brutal truth behind this amoral love affair: MbS has done what America has asked. Fourteen years have passed since Michael Moore’s risible film Fahrenheit 9/11—long enough to erase America’s collective memory of the complaint against Saudi Arabia that formed the crooked spine of that pseudodocumentary. Saudi Arabia contributed 17 of the 19 hijackers on September 11; it encouraged jihadism while professing to be an American ally; it distorted American politics by wielding influence over the Bush family and the various corporate slaves to its oil industry.
MBS, and his much-vaunted reforms of Saudi Arabia, are the response to these complaints. He has repressed, rather brutally, anyone with connections to Islamists—including Khashoggi, who never concealed his sympathy for what might be called “soft Islamism.” (The Saudis have accused him of belonging to the Muslim Brotherhood; he pointedly refused to deny the accusation, while maintaining, reasonably, that freedom of conscience would allow him to be a Brother if he wished.) MbS has acknowledged that hydrocarbon feudalism is not a viable form of government for Saudi Arabia in perpetuity. He has laid off criticism of Israel. Crucially, he has undertaken massive economic and political change, precisely along the lines that were the basis of a liberal critique of Saudi Arabia a decade ago. That the implementation of this critique has occasionally taken a homicidal form may have seemed to MbS incidental.
MbS has seemed wounded by the speed with which Western powers have dropped him—even after he has incarnated their fondest hopes for the modernization (and de-Islamization) of the kingdom. He has alluded to a willingness to seek the friendship of China or Russia, if accession to every demand of the United States is not enough to maintain their relationship. But with Trump’s Tuesday statement, he knows that the relationship is a safe one. “If you want a friend in Washington,” goes the adage, “get a dog.” With Trump’s statement we see that the genus Homo can be a more constant and loyal friend than one found in any kennel."
https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2018/11/trump-releases-statement-support-saudi-arabia/576436/
24 Sussex: une disgrâce
"Paul Martin, a Liberal who was prime minister from 2003 to 2006, said the role of 24 Sussex in Canada’s history merits its preservation.
“It is an important Canadian icon,” said Mr. Martin. “I do have affection for the house.”%% But Mr. Martin added that his wife, Sheila, who spent more time at 24 Sussex than he did, has less fond memories. “Her view is that the house had to be renovated from the bottom up,” he said."
https://www.nytimes.com/2018/11/15/world/canada/justin-trudeau-ottawa-prime-minister-residence.html?fallback=0&recId=1DIzjtTiPeOUvQXieN2Ta03o8K5&locked=0&geoContinent=NA&geoRegion=QC&recAlloc=contextual-bandit-story-desks&geoCountry=CA&blockId=signature-journalism-vi&imp_id=977120410
Donald Trump endosse les valeurs saoudiennes (position éditoriale, New York Times)
"When Mr. Trump did briefly note Mr. Khashoggi’s murder — “a terrible one” — the president repeated Saudi slanders that the journalist was an “enemy of the state” and an Islamist, disingenuously adding that this did not affect his thinking. It’s not the first time Mr. Trump has suggested that this is not someone for whom America should jeopardize its interests.
In the absence of leadership from the president, it falls to Congress to take action and protect America’s standing in the world. Mr. Trump knows he is on a collision course with the legislature: His statement concludes with a challenge to members of Congress who “for political or other reasons, would like to go in a different direction” to go ahead and try."
https://www.nytimes.com/2018/11/20/opinion/trump-khashoggi-saudi-arabia-salman.html?action=click&module=Opinion&pgtype=Homepage
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