Les démocrates peuvent-ils regagner la Chambre de représentants? Les chances sont bien minces

Les déboires actuelles de la campagne de Trump et les querelles entre les Républicains pourraient contribuer à donner espoir aux Démocrates de regagner le contrôle des deux chambres du Congrès. Si le Sénat représente un réel objectif pour eux, la Chambre est presque hors de portée.

 "The Fix has just updated its 2016 House race ratings, and while some races have moved in Democrats' favor, several others have moved in Republicans' favor. It's just too early to know the full effect of Trump's terrible two weeks and how much it filters downballot; it takes time to conduct polling, and polling of House races is scattershot as it is.

What we do know: To take over the House, Democrats need to pretty well run the table. We currently rate 52 seats as at least somewhat competitive, and Democrats would need to win 38 — 71 percent — of them to get to 218 seats and a House majority.

 To do that, they would need to hold all 12 seats we currently rate as “lean Democratic,” all 17 we currently rate as “toss-up,” and nine of the 23 seats we currently rate as “lean Republican.” In other words, they probably need to see those “lean Republican” seats shift into the “toss-up” category in the coming weeks. As of now, not even Democrats are saying that has happened."

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/the-fix/wp/2016/10/12/heres-how-good-a-shot-democrats-have-of-actually-winning-the-house/?hpid=hp_hp-top-table-main_fix-house-1pm%3Ahomepage%2Fstory