"Most polls show Obama with a modest advantage nationwide and in key swing states, but they also show Republicans making modest Senate gains — perhaps large enough to take control of the upper chamber. And if Obama wins, the GOP plans to construe those gains as a mixed verdict from voters.
“It is beyond my imagination to think of a November 6 scenario that could satisfy these criteria (although surprise is important precisely because it cannot be predicted),” Stimson added. “Can you imagine a November 7 statement from Mitch McConnell saying, ‘The public has spoken and now it is our duty to work with President Obama to achieve the promised changes.’”
This adds up to a system of government in which big changes are rare, and often occur not because of an effusion of popular support but because of one party’s will to power. After losing the popular vote, President George W. Bush signed major tax cuts and other partisan legislation into law in his first term. In 2005, after a much clearer re-election victory, Bush declared he’d been given a mandate, and yet his key initiative — Social Security privatization — got laughed out of the Capitol.
“Mandates are used for rhetorical purpose but most legislative tacticians discount them,” says former Senate Democratic leader Tom Daschle.
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