"I wouldn’t be surprised if his percentage falls further before New Hampshire. The market has learned from Iowa that Trump can’t be relied on for turnout. Second, he’s lost momentum, and third, Trump’s brand is no longer the same: I’m number one, look at me, I’m on top, you’re down there. But I’m still not ready to short-sell Trump in New Hampshire like I did in Iowa. (I made a last minute, weekend decision to bet that Trump would lose Iowa, which returned a $1,500 profit when Trump lost.) I’m watching a few factors this week. First, I want to see if Trump takes a bigger hit in the polls. I’m also looking to see if an obvious establishment rival to Trump emerges in the state; for months, the establishment candidates have more or less viewed New Hampshire as their saving grace, resulting in a four-way brawl between Kasich, Christie, Bush and Rubio. Will the Bush or Christie people transfer? Is Rubio hoovering up those votes, or is Kasich?"
http://www.politico.com/magazine/story/2016/02/election-gambler-predicts-new-hampshire-213600
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