President Obama’s Libya speech: What to Watch For

Pas mal... On verra ce que ça donne dans un peu plus d'une heure...

*Oratory vs complexity: A look back at Obama’s speech-making since he burst on the national stage at the 2004 Democratic National Convention reveals an interesting trend. Obama is at his best when the topic is sweeping — his speech on race in America during the Jeremiah Wright controversy, his acceptance speech at the 2008 national convention, his address at the memorial service for the victims of the Arizona shooting. He can struggle when the focus is more specific, most notably in his not-all-that-well-received speech during the BP oil spill on the Gulf Coast. The situation in Libya calls for complexity and because of that will likely require a more workman-like speech from the President. The other option, of course, is for Obama to go big — connecting Libya to the ongoing uprisings in the Arab world. Early indications out of the White House, however, suggest he won’t take that course.

* The End Game: The White House waited to make this speech until the President could make clear that the U.S. had handed over enforcement of the no-fly zone to its NATO allies. Tonight will find out if it was the right decision or if, in so doing, they lost control of the message on the conflict. A Pew poll released Monday afternoon showed that while a plurality — 47 percent — supported the airstrikes in Libya just 39 percent said that the mission had a “clear goal” and just one in three predicted the conflict would be “over pretty quickly”. Those numbers suggest that Obama’s main mission in the address is to make clear what winning means — saving civilian lives or ousting Gaddafi — and when it will happen. Neither one will be a simple case to make. Defense Secretary Robert Gates acknowledged as much on Sunday; “I don’t think anybody knows the answer to that,” Gates told ABC’s Jake Tapper in response to a question how long the U.S. involvement in Libya would last. As we’ve written in this space before, the American public is impatient — at best — when it comes to American military intervention in foreign countries. A look back at recent conflicts suggest that the longer the U.S. stays, the less popular the intervention will be.

* Et Tu, Congress?: The White House seems to have been taken slightly off-guard by the negative reaction from all corners of Congress to the actions it took in Libya. That means that the second Obama finishes speaking tonight, reporters will turn to Member of Congress to gauge their reaction. Watch what Sen. Jim Webb says, in particular. Webb, a former Secretary of the Navy in the Reagan Administration, is a widely respected voice on military matters and has voiced doubts over the last week about the implications of the Libyan conflict on U.S. foreign policy . The more Democrats not named Dennis Kucinich willing to go on the record as critical of the Administration's policy toward Libya, the less likely the White House will get the sort of messaging victory they are hoping for.

http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/the-fix/post/president-obamas-libya-speech-what-to-watch-for/2011/03/28/AFpPjIqB_blog.html