"Ohio is the final frontier of the 2012 race. The Obama and Romney campaigns each believe a win would likely guarantee an electoral college victory for its side. Breaking things down even further, a handful of key counties could provide clues on where things are heading in early voting and on election night.
The clearest swing county is Hamilton, which includes Cincinnati and its suburbs, in the Southwest corner of the state. Most of the state is divided between dense urban counties (solid Democrat) and smaller, more rural counties (solid Republican), very few of which actually switch between parties. Long considered a Republican stronghold, Hamilton has become the one county that’s both heavily populated and highly competitive in 2012. In 2008, Barack Obama won by a 52-47 margin over John McCain, banking about 21,000 net votes in the process. Just four years earlier, President Bush won the county over John Kerry by almost the same margin, 53-47 and about 23,000 net votes.
http://2012.talkingpointsmemo.com/2012/10/the-counties-to-watch-in-ohio-on-election-night.php?ref=fpa
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