"Sanctions, soon to be tightened further, are finally biting, angering ordinary citizens as their costs rise and prompting an unusual level of saber-rattling from the Iranian regime. It has threatened to attack if a U.S. aircraft carrier re-enters the Persian Gulf (which one certainly will) and to close the strategically critical Strait of Hormuz, passageway for one-fifth of the world's daily oil supply (which the Pentagon concedes it is capable of doing). Either action would turn the long cold war with Iran hot and likely cripple the world economy, which is why both threats are most likely calculated bluster. By provoking fear, Iran drives up oil prices, pumping money into its economy while simultaneously worrying economically vulnerable and oil-hungry European nations, which are scheduled to enact new sanctions soon. Following through on the threats, however, is another matter. Closing the Strait of Hormuz would hurt no nation as much as it would Iran. Its own oil exports pass through the strait, as do imports on which its economy depends. Iran would, in effect, be sanctioning itself. The regime also surely knows that sinking a U.S. naval vessel would prompt a massive counterattack, which would do it no good.
So if reason and patience prevail, tempers should cool. The question is, will they?"
La suite: http://www.usatoday.com/news/opinion/editorials/story/2012-01-17/Iran-tensions-sanctions-nuclear/52624106/1
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