"Carson, Fiorina and Trump are not going to be our nominee," the strategist said. "It is a two-man race, Jeb versus Marco. And while I think Marco has a real shot , the idea that they are equal is also ridiculous. Jeb is built for the long haul, which gives him a leg up."
The question that has to keep Bush and his team up at night, however, is: What happens if all of those ads paid for by all of that money don't move Republican voters who have quite clearly not been won over by what Bush has shown on the campaign trail?
The good news on that front for Bush is that 55 percent of Republican primary voters in the NBC-WSJ poll said they could see themselves supporting him, while 43 percent said they couldn't. That's not great, but it's actually the fourth-best showing in the GOP field — even as opinions about Bush were, notably, less favorable than they were about Rubio on that question.
The bad news for Bush is that on immigration, an issue that fires up the GOP base like almost no other, he is deeply out of step with the activists. Bush has said repeatedly that he supports some form of comprehensive immigration reform in a party whose base believes it is "amnesty" to let any of the 11 million (or so) people who entered the country illegally stay here. That's to say nothing of his support for Common Core educational standards — a program considered a federal overreach by conservatives — or the dynastic last name that he carries in a nation in a deeply anti-politician mood.
http://www.washingtonpost.com/news/the-fix/wp/2015/09/29/why-isnt-anyone-talking-about-jeb-bushs-terrible-poll-numbers/
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