jeudi 19 septembre 2019

Attaquer l'Iran? Une réflexion s'impose


David Frum suggère ici une petite liste de questions auxquelles les Américains devraient répondre avant de laisser l'administration s'en prendre directement à l'Iran. Je note surtout celle sur l'implication du congrès et, surtout, sur les liens qui unissent l'administration à l'Arabie saoudite. 

 "Armed aggression against U.S. friends and partners does not in itself demand a U.S. response. India has been a target of frequent armed aggression from Pakistan. The United States has not jumped in. Normally, the United States asks questions such as: Can this friend handle the attack on its own? Is there perhaps fault on both sides? Are there nonmilitary solutions? How important are the interests at risk?

That last question is especially important in Saudi Arabia.

 As Trump often reminds his Twitter readers, the United States is again a net exporter of oil, and the world’s largest single producer of petroleum. Saudi Arabia’s top customer is now China. The attack on the Saudi refineries raised the price of oil, but it’s doubtful that the spike will endure—and anyway, it is not obvious that an ultralow oil price is in the U.S. national interest. A higher oil price improves the competitiveness of North American producers and encourages oil consumers around the world to burn less of the climate-altering stuff."

There’s no evident emergency here."

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