Une victoire démocrate en 2020 passe-t-elle par le midwest ou par le sud?

D'entrée de jeu je précise que je suis dans le camp de ceux qui croient que pour gagner en 2020 les Démocrates doivent se concentrer sur le Wisconsin, le Michigan et la Pennsylvanie pour reconquérir ce qui était leur fameux "pare-feu" ou "firewall". Il y a de belles percées dans le sud et l'évolution démographique pourrait bien offrir un avenir avantageux aux candidatures démocrates, mais pour moi le chemin le plus sûr passe par le midwest. Selon l'analyse présentée ici, bien viser dans le sud serait cependant aussi payant...

 "Yet far away from the mounting snowdrifts that line every curb here, there is a growing school of thought that Democrats should not spend so much time, money and psychic energy tailoring their message to a heavily white, rural and blue-collar part of the country when their coalition is increasingly made up of racial minorities and suburbanites. The party should still pursue voters who have drifted toward Republicans, this thinking goes, but should also place a high priority on mobilizing communities more amenable to progressive politics.

 The numerical swap between the three Rust Belt states that handed Mr. Trump the White House and the most alluring trio of Sun Belt targets is nearly even: Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin have a combined 46 electoral votes, while North Carolina, Georgia and Arizona offer 42. And an aspirational “reach” state like Texas would offer a larger trove of electoral votes for Democrats than the combined total of Ohio and Iowa, states that have started to slip away from the party."

  https://www.nytimes.com/2019/02/25/us/politics/democrats-2020-midwest-voters.html?action=click&module=Well&pgtype=Homepage&section=Politics