"At the moment, that scenario could be the biggest threat to Trump’s chances at winning a second term, according to interviews with eight current and former senior administration officials and close White House advisers.
The president knows this better than anyone, since he is highly attuned to fluctuations in the stock market and views it as a form of polling. At times, Trump has bragged about the market’s performance on a near daily basis. A real estate mogul who has borrowed heavily, Trump is equally obsessed with interest rates, and has closely monitored the runup to a mid-December Federal Reserve meeting in which central bankers are expected to raise rates. Political advisers have urged Trump to build his economic message around more stable data points than the daily volatility of the stock market, such as the low unemployment rate."
https://www.politico.com/story/2018/12/07/trump-2020-election-economy-recession-trade-war-1048197
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