Caucus du Maine: une victoire de Ron Paul?

Le faible taux de participation jouerait en faveur de Paul. Son organisation sur le terrain est supérieure à celles des autres candidats.

 "The most important thing to know about the Republican caucuses in Maine that will report their results Saturday night is that turnout four years ago was extremely low. How low? Four years ago, just 5,338 Republicans participated. Total. In a state with just over a million adults eligible to vote, that amounts to a turnout rate of 0.52 percent. How low? By comparison, as a percentage of the voting-eligible population, the turnouts for this month's Colorado, Minnesota and Nevada caucuses were 2 to 3 times higher. The turnout for Iowa's caucuses in early January was more than 12 times higher.

 How low? The turnout rate for Maine's 2008 Republican Caucuses was even lower than the turnout for the Ames Iowa Straw Poll in August, both in absolute terms (Ames attracted 16,892 Iowa Republicans) and as a percentage of Iowa's eligible adults (0.75 percent). Keep in mind that first two winners of the Ames Straw poll -- Rep. Michele Bachmann (R-Minn.), with 29 percent, and Rep. Ron Paul (R-Texas), 28 percent -- went on to receive far less support in the full Iowa caucuses in January (5 and 21 percent respectively).

 The lesson from the Ames Straw Poll is that a combination of strong organization and die-hard support can combine to produce unpredictable results in extremely low turnout contests. Paul's campaign had that combination for the Ames vote and may well have it again Saturday in Maine. Recent polling, which had been sparse before the other early February caucuses, has been non-existent for Maine, due the virtually insurmountable challenge of sampling this sort of micro-electorate. Anecdotal reports, however, suggest that this may be Paul's best chance for a victory: Exeter Patch reports that Paul's supporters turned out in force Saturday morning at one Maine caucus site. "His people are the most organized here," according to one caucus worker. Patch reporter Jason Claffery also found "zero presence" for the Gingrich and Santorum campaigns."

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2012/02/11/maine-caucuses-low-turnout_n_1270377.html?ref=politics