lundi 31 octobre 2016
"As the presidential contest between the two least popular nominees in American history enters its final, fittingly dispiriting stretch, the focus is on Clinton. That’s bad news for her: Throughout this contest, the candidate dominating the headlines has been the candidate losing ground. But it may be too late to shift the broader dynamic of the race, especially because voters’ perceptions had already hardened — a majority of Americans viewed Clinton as untrustworthy long before Friday’s news and still deem her more fit to serve as president than Trump.
“One thing that really hasn’t changed is their ‘unfavorables’ this entire campaign, hovering within 3-4 points of one another. And their ‘strongly unfavorable’ have continued to grow: He’s over 50 percent and she’s almost at 50 percent,” said Ed Goeas, a GOP pollster in Washington. “Barring something like a true indictment of her or him being caught today fondling some woman, I just don’t think anything is going to change the fundamentals, which favor Clinton.”
"There are limits, however, to how widespread that effect might be because of early voting in some battleground states — which not only makes it easier for lower-propensity voters to participate, but also has allowed Clinton’s campaign, which is better organized in most swing states, to bank votes over the past few weeks. That’s especially true in Florida, where 3.6 million people had voted as of the latest data available Sunday; North Carolina, where 1.1 million residents had voted as of Friday morning; and Nevada, where more than 430,000 ballots had been cast as of Sunday night."
"What was the moment for all of us — when, whatever our politics, we crossed over from avid news consumers to something more rabid? Maybe scientists will someday study our brains and find this moment etched into the neurons, the way fire scars are preserved in the rings of a tree. Much has been said about the portion of the electorate disgusted with both choices, disengaged from the process — but there are also those so bullish on their candidates — or so frightened by the alternative — that they cannot bear to look away."
dimanche 30 octobre 2016
Le premier avis est celui de Paul Callan qui analyse les questions juridiques pour CNN. le second, plus partisan, est celui du meneur de la majorité démocrate au Sénat Harry Reid.
L'avis de Callan:
"In truth, investigations open and close routinely and secretly when new evidence comes to light. Each new scrap in a pile of useful or useless evidence is not announced in real time, like a scandal in a scripted reality TV Show. Perhaps it's time for the embattled FBI director who seems to have forgotten how to conduct a proper investigation to resign.
Comey's public announcement in July that the FBI had concluded its investigation regarding Hillary Clinton's use of a private email server in the conduct of official State Department business and would not recommend the lodging of criminal charges was historically unprecedented in a high-profile political case." L'opinion de Reid: "The Hatch Act prohibits FBI officials from using their official authority to influence an election. Reid said that by releasing this information, which he says is not conclusive or pertinent, Comey may have broken the law. Reid referenced a memo from Deputy Attorney General Sally Yates from March of this year that establishes all Justice Department employees, including Comey, are subject to the Hatch Act.
Reid accused Comey of having intent to aid one political party over the other in the election and called his behavior a "double standard" due to the fact that, as Reid claimed in the letter, Comey has information related to Donald Trump's dealings with Russia."
Lien pour la position de Callan:
Lien pour la position de Reid:
"A public revelation in early October might have been less politically damaging for Clinton than one coming less than two weeks before the Nov. 8 election. It is also unclear what agents have been doing in the intervening time — for instance, whether they were trying to learn more about the emails before notifying Comey. An FBI spokesman declined to immediately provide a statement."
“Obviously the party and the conservative movement are very troubled, and there will obviously be a crisis whether Trump wins or loses,” Berkowitz told me later. “What are the core conservative convictions going forward?”
“If he wins, he will for all intents and purposes reshape what it means to be a Republican,” said Schake when I called her. “We’re fumbling our way through, which I hope will lead us to consensus, but we’re nowhere near it now.”
"Republicans' growing unity behind their presidential nominee, Donald Trump, has helped pull him just 1 percentage point behind Hillary Clinton and has placed GOP leaders who resist him in a vulnerable position, according to the latest Washington Post-ABC News Tracking Poll.
A majority of all likely voters say they are unmoved by the FBI's announcement Friday that it may review additional emails from Clinton's time as secretary of state. Just more than 6 in 10 voters say the news will make no difference in their vote, while just more than 3 in 10 say it makes them less likely to support her; 2 percent say they are more likely to back her as a result."
"ABC News and The Washington Post will release the latest four-night rolling averages on a daily basis. The first rolling average conducted entirely after the FBI’s letter to Congress will be conducted Friday through Monday and is slated for release next Wednesday."
Caricature de MARIAN KEMENSKY, SLOVAKIA
C'est au lendemain du putsch avorté du 15 juillet que le Président avait évoqué le retour de la peine de mort. Elle avait été abolie en 2004, une concession dans le cadre des négociations pour permettre à la Turquie d'adhérer à l'Union européenne. Erdogan a affirmé qu'il se souciait peu de ce que les Occidentaux pensaient, mais on peut imaginer les retombées pour la candidature de la Turquie.
"As former deputy attorneys general in the Bill Clinton and George W. Bush administrations, we are troubled by the apparent departure from these standards in the investigation of Hillary Clinton’s email server. First, the FBI director, James B. Comey, put himself enthusiastically forward as the arbiter of not only whether to prosecute a criminal case — which is not the job of the FBI — but also best practices in the handling of email and other matters. Now, he has chosen personally to restrike the balance between transparency and fairness, departing from the department’s traditions. As former deputy attorney general George Terwilliger aptly put it, “There’s a difference between being independent and flying solo.”"
samedi 29 octobre 2016
"“No one can separate what is true from what is not because Comey has not been forthcoming with the facts,” Podesta said, calling on Comey to release additional information about his probe beyond his letter to congressional leaders on Friday. He accused Comey of providing “selective information” that Republicans were using for political advantage."
"The officials acknowledged there was little Lynch and Yates could do given the fallout over Lynch's controversial meeting over the summer with former President Bill Clinton.
Lynch and Yates objected after Comey gave advance notice to top officials at the Justice Department before sending the letter to lawmakers, law enforcement officials briefed on the matter said. Justice officials didn't sign off on Comey's decision and he didn't seek their approval, one official said.
Instead, he made an independent decision to go against longstanding Justice Department and FBI practice to not comment publicly about politically sensitive investigations within 60 days of an election, the official said."
“I’m confident whatever [the emails] are will not change the conclusion reached in July,” she said. “Therefore, it’s imperative that the bureau explain this issue in question, whatever it is, without any delay.”
""I got a lot of respect for Jim Comey, but I don't understand this idea of dropping this bombshell which could be a big dud," said former federal prosector Peter Zeidenberg, a veteran of politically sensitive investigations. "Doing it in the last week or 10 days of a presidential election without more information, I don't think that he should because how does it inform a voter? It just invites speculation ... I would question the timing of it. It's not going to get done in a week."
Nick Akerman, a former assistant U.S. attorney in the Southern District of New York, was more critical: "Director Comey acted totally inappropriately. He had no business writing to Congress about supposed new emails that neither he nor anyone in the FBI has ever reviewed.”"
vendredi 28 octobre 2016
"The revelation, the latest October surprise, has the potential to change the dynamic of the race, just as Clinton had been pulling away from Trump in recent weeks. Trump was hit by his own surprise on Oct. 7 with the release of a 2005 “Access Hollywood” tape in which the billionaire was caught boasting about being able to get away with grabbing women by the genitals because he’s “a star.”"
"“I'm not sure how big a factor it is, but there is definitely a ‘Bradley effect’ going on out there,” said a Virginia Republican, referring to the African-American mayor of Los Angeles who led in polls but lost unexpectedly in the 1982 California gubernatorial race. “I personally know many Republicans that won't admit that they are voting for Trump. I don't like admitting it myself. It won't matter if Hillary is up more than 5 points, but we might be in for a surprise if Hillary's lead is less than 5 points on Election Day.”"