"A number of key swing states are significantly outperforming the national economy, prompting a celebration from state leaders even as Mitt Romney tries to draw attention to their ongoing struggles. In Ohio, manufacturing is booming thanks in part to the auto rescue, and in Virginia, the unemployment rate stands at an impressive 5.6 percent. Obama happens to have modest leads in both states right now.
So if the recovery is at its most potent in the election’s most critical contests, is Obama on the fast track to re-election? That’s the view of Moody’s Analytics at least, which recently named Obama the favorite based on its electoral model, which focuses on the economic well-being of individual states. After all, the argument goes, if Obama is heading toward wins in Ohio and Virginia, he can afford to lose virtually every other swing state and still prevail over Romney.
There are still other factors in play, like partisanship, which helps explain why Obama is doing well in Nevada, where unemployment is at a worst-in-the-nation 11.7 percent, and doing terribly in North Dakota, which paces the other 49 states at 3 percent unemployment. But Obama seems to be outperforming his national numbers against Romney in at least a few key states where the economy is doing well and lagging behind in North Carolina, which holds a 9.7 percent unemployment rate, and Florida, with 9 percent unemployment.
Obama shouldn’t start re-measuring the drapes on the Oval Office just yet, though. While it makes intuitive sense that voters whose pocketbook hasn’t been hit as badly feel more warmly about Obama, Moody’s isn’t the only model out there. And a number of political scientists are skeptical of whether the economic health of an individual’s state, county or even their own bank statement, is a major factor in his or her vote.
http://2012.talkingpointsmemo.com/2012/05/experts-split-on-whether-booming-swing-states-foretell-second-obama-term.php?ref=fpnewsfeed
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