The debate commission has said it will only invite candidates to the debate who score above 15 percent in five national polls — surveys from ABC News/Washington Post, CBS News/New York Times, CNN/ORC, Fox News and NBC News/Wall Street Journal — as of “mid-September.” A POLITICO analysis of the most recent surveys from these pollsters pegs Johnson’s average, currently, at 9.2 percent.
Johnson’s 9-point-plus standing came through polls of registered voters, but in the coming weeks, many of the five network pollsters are switching to polls of likely voters, a smaller subset of the population among whom Johnson has thus far scored slightly worse. In the three August polls that included results for both registered and likely voters, Johnson scored a point worse among likely voters in two of them, and his share was unchanged in the third.
If the debate commission decides to use likely voters to decide who gets on stage for its Sept. 26 debate on Long Island, Johnson’s path to a podium gets all the more complicated."
http://www.politico.com/story/2016/09/gary-johnson-presidential-debates-227654
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