Non selon Jed Babbin sur le site de Real clear politics. Et la situation lui rappelle le Vietnam...
"The last time we tried to negotiate with an undefeated enemy was more than four decades ago and the enemy was the North Vietnamese. The parallels are so close that it is hard to see how the result in Afghanistan can be different.
Karzai has grown quarrelsome, accusing the United States of occupying his country for its own purposes, and is trying to establish limits on drone operations and more. South Vietnamese President Nguyen Van Thieu often tried, unsuccessfully, to change the course of the Paris peace talks. Compared to the comprehensive corruption in Karzai's government, Thieu's was a model of good government. And Thieu's military was far better manned, trained and equipped than Karzai's is.
After years of negotiation, the "peace" we crafted with the North Vietnamese provided a foundation for its final conquest of South Vietnam soon after American forces departed.
Obama needs to begin negotiations with the Taliban now because, in late 2009 when he announced the troop surge, he said that the surge would end and withdrawal of U.S. troops would begin in July 2011 and be completed in 2014. If Obama is to maintain that schedule, some credible "peace" must be in place by then or historians will label Afghanistan as "Obama's Vietnam."
Obama and Gates have said repeatedly that the number of troops withdrawn would depend on the conditions on the ground. Those conditions range from fluid to grim."
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2011/06/23/afghanistan_taliban_barack_obama_hamid_karzai_110331.html
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