"In his bid for a second term, Trump will benefit from systemic features of U.S. politics as well as a few attributes particular to himself. Let’s start with the system. First, incumbency is a powerful force. Since the Second World War, only two elected presidents who sought a second term have failed to win it. One, Jimmy Carter, was hobbled by a poor economy. The second, George H. W. Bush, was also hurt by the economy and by the fact that Republicans had run the country for 12 years, long enough for voters to be ready for a change. Even presidents whom voters have harshly punished during midterm elections by pounding their allies in Congress have won reelection (Ronald Reagan, Bill Clinton, Barack Obama). So have those overseeing failing wars (Richard Nixon, George W. Bush).
The incumbency advantage is particularly strong if the economy is good. With remarkable consistency, a president overseeing a growing economy wins at the polls, even if—as is usually the case—he had little to do with creating it. The American economy is chugging forward. Employment and stocks are both up, and while wage growth remains frustratingly slow, it is positive. A lot could change between now and November 2020, and some economists believe the U.S. is due for a recession. But as long as current trends hold, Trump has the wind at his back.
Trump also benefits from the peculiarities of the American electoral system. For years before his election, progressive demographers pushed the “emerging Democratic majority” theory. It holds that as white voters shrink as a portion of the population, the new electorate—with greater shares of black, Hispanic, and Asian voters, as well as younger voters of all races—will slant heavily toward liberal candidates. Obama’s two victories, carried by surging votes from African Americans, convinced the theory’s proponents they were right. A high-profile Republican Party “autopsy” of Mitt Romney’s loss in 2012 concurred, arguing that the party needed to open up to nonwhite voters or risk irrelevance. In the meantime, Democrats benefited from their legacy of strong support in the Rust Belt. There, the shrinking but still large number of blue-collar workers provided Democratic candidates with a built-in Electoral College advantage. This “firewall” would protect the party until the minority youth movement arrived."
https://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2018/11/2020-presidential-race-trump-starts-favorite/575344/
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